After a dismal post-earnings performance, can Seagate Technology stock bounce back?

Seagate Technology Holdings stock (NASDAQNDAQ
: STX) is down 11% over the past month (twenty-one trading days), significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which is up 1.2% over the period. Additionally, if you look at the change over the last week and ten days, the stock has returned -5.5% and -4.5%, and has performed much worse than the broader markets on both occasions. Seagate last week announced earnings for the first quarter of 23, with revenue of approximately $2.04 billion, much less than $3.12 billion in the first quarter of 22. As operating expenses declined at a slower rate than revenue, operating income fell from $586 million to $107 million during that period. Despite a decrease in the effective tax rate and the number of shares outstanding, net income declined and earnings per share were lower at $0.14 compared to $2.33 for the same period last year.

Now, will STX stock continue its underperformance or can we expect a rebound? We believe there is a 57% chance of an increase in STX stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the last ten years. See our analysis on STX share Opportunities for advancement. For more details on the company’s historical returns and how it compares to its peers, visit Seagate Technology Share Return.

Day 21: STX -11% vs S&P500 1.2%; Below average market

(13% probability of event; 57% probability of increase over the next 21 days)

  • STX bearings down 11% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) compared to a 1.2% rise in the broader market (S&P500)
  • A change of -11% or more over twenty-one trading days is an event with a 13% probability that has occurred 317 out of 2516 times in the last 10 years
  • Of those 317 instances, the stock has seen 180 positive moves over the next twenty-one trading days
  • This points to one 57% probability that the stock will rise in the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: STX -4.5% vs S&P500 3.8%; Below average market

(Event probability 21%; probability of increase 52% in the next 10 days)

  • STX bearings down 4.5% over the last 10 trading days (two weeks) compared to a 3.8% rise in the broader market (S&P500)
  • A change of -4.5% or more over 10 trading days is an event with a 21% probability that has occurred 528 out of 2516 times in the last 10 years
  • In 273 of these 528 cases, the stock developed positively over the next ten trading days
  • This points to one 52% probability that the stock will increase in the next ten trading days

Five days: STX -5.5% vs. S&P500 0.1%; Below average market

(14% event probability; 58% probability of increase over the next five days)

  • STX bearings 5.5% lost over a five-day trading period ending 11/1/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which is up a marginal 0.1% over the period.
  • A change of -5.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is an event with a probability of 14% that has occurred 361 out of 2516 times in the last 10 years
  • In 209 of these 361 cases, the stock developed positively over the next five trading days
  • This points to one 58% probability that the stock will rise in the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high quality portfolio and Multi-strategy portfolio have consistently outperformed the market since late 2016.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See everything Trefis price estimates

source

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *