NFL Odds Week 10: How To Bet Browns-Dolphins Choose

The Cleveland Browns travel to Florida to face the Miami Dolphins in Week 10.

The Browns are coming off a bye week while the Dolphins defeated the Chicago Bears 35-32 in their Week 9 matchup.

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Browns-Dolphins game, from point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet):

Packers WRs are reportedly feeling frustrated after Aaron Rodgers made them “scapegoats.”

Packers WRs are reportedly feeling frustrated after Aaron Rodgers made them

All eyes are on Aaron Rodgers after the Green Bay Packers fell to 3-6.

TIED TOGETHER: Warren Sharp’s odds for week 10

Brown at dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point distribution: Dolphins -4 (Dolphins prefer to win with more than 4 points, otherwise Browns cover)
money line: Dolphins -213 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14.69 total); Browns +160 win underdogs (bet $10 to win $26 total)
Total Over/Under: Both teams scored 48.5 points together

Cleveland Browns

CLE

Miami Dolphins

MIA

Choose via FOX Sports Betting Expert Warren Sharp:

After a start to the season in which they had at least 26 points and averaged 27 PPG (team-sixth-highest scoring team) in four of their first five games, the Browns put down just 15 against the fifth-ranked Patriots and 20 against the Ravens’ 15th defense .

Their cold streak was broken, scoring 32 points against the familiar defense of division rivals Bengals in Week 8 ahead of their bye.

The drop in production was predictable given the injuries and the fact that the team played four underperforming defenses in their first five games.

But after playing defense rankings:

  • 5. New England
  • 8. Cincinnati
  • 15. Baltimore

In the last three weeks, the Browns meet No. 27 Miami this week.

One of the biggest issues with this Dolphins defense lately has been their inability to apply pressure. So they flash. Increasingly.

In weeks 1-4, they blitzed at a 32% rate and pressured at a 33% rate. Both were slightly above average.

But by week 5 the pressure was gone. They’ve fallen to a below-average print rate of 29%. And to add to the pressure, they’re now blitzing at a rate of 40%, which is the third highest in the NFL.

And the pressure on these blitzes will be intense for Miami, because check out their splits on early-down blitzes this year:

  • When pressure builds: -0.34 EPA/att (18th)
  • If there is no pressure: +0.20 EPA/att (30th)

And for Brisettwatch his splits when flashed:

  • Blitz led to pressure: -0.56 EPA/att, 32% success, 6.9 YPA (34 att)
  • Blitz got no pressure: +0.40 EPA/att, 55% success, 8.9 YPA (44 att)

The divisions have become even more massive. Since week 6 when he was flashed:

  • Blitz led to pressure: -1.45 EPA/att, 20% success, 5.2 YPA (15 att)
  • Blitz got no pressure: +0.94 EPA/att, 60% success, 13.5 YPA (15 att)

If Miami blitzes a lot and doesn’t get pressure, which is happening to them more than any other team in the NFL lately (86 such dropbacks this year, the highest in the NFL), it’s going to be a problem against Brissett.

The dolphins also rarely use 2-high safety looks. No team plays it less than Miami.

Well, that’s a very good thing for Jacoby Brissett. Because he has big splits against 2-high, and in fact he’s been the most sensitive QB to 2-high since week 3.

First, check out his season splits:

  • 2 high: -0.11 EPA/att, 39% success, 6.8 YPA on 75 returns
  • Single high: +0.17 EPA/att, 52% success, 8.1 YPA on 196 returns

And since week 7:

  • 2-High: -0.13 EPA/att, 29% success, 7.4 YPA on 14 rebounds
  • Single high: +0.46 EPA/att, 59% success, 12.6 YPA at 41 dropbacks

We should expect a decrease in rush efficiency Nick Chub, as we saw solid run defense against the Bengals as Miami was extremely solid against the run. But even against the Bengals’ seventh-best running defense, Chubb, he still surpassed 100 yards despite only 4.4 YPC and posted two rushing TDs.

The difference between the Bengals and the Dolphins is that the Dolphins rank sixth in yards from contact with opposing running backs while the Bengals ranked 17th.

While the Browns’ rushing attack may decrease in efficiency, I think the passing attack more than compensates thanks to Brissett’s stats against single high safes and his ability to deliver when blitzed but not pressured can be.

Additionally, the Browns like to toss the ball to their RBs, and the Dolphins defense ranks last in EPA/att allowed vs opposing RB targets (+0.27/att) and allowed a league-high 7.1 YPA.

Proposed bet: Cleveland Brown’s team over 23 points overall

SELECT: Over 23 points Cleveland Browns team overall

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