The Carolina Panthers travel to Maryland to face the Baltimore Ravens in an NFL matchup in Week 11.
The Panthers are coming off a 25-15 win over the Atlanta Falcons while the Ravens are coming off a Week 11 bye.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Panthers Ravens game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and Warren Sharp’s insights (odds via FOX Bet):
Baker Mayfield named Panthers starting QB against Ravens
Skip Bayless explains why they think the Panthers are returning to Baker instead of Darnold.
TIED TOGETHER: Week 11 lines, odds
Panthers at Ravens (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Point distribution: Ravens -13 (Ravens favors victory with more than 13 points, otherwise Panthers cover)
money line: Ravens -714 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $11.40 total); Panthers +450 Win underdogs (bet $10 to win $55.50 total)
Total Over/Under: Both teams scored 41.5 points together
Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:
The Carolina Panthers have played four games against top-15 defensemen.
Aside from a nice 21-3 totally unexpected excitement over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the results of these games:
- 37-15 loss to the 49ers
- 24-10 loss to the Rams
- 42-21 loss to the Bengalis
The Baltimore Ravens have played three games against underperforming offense. The results of these games:
- 24-9 victory over the Jets
- 37-26 victory over the Patriots
- 27-13 victory over the Saints
Now the Panthers will line up their #29 offense against the Ravens with Baker Mayfield. It will be the easiest offense the Ravens have played all season.
And after playing the second-toughest passing offense schedule of the year, the Ravens face the Panthers’ 32nd-best passing offense.
This should be a big day for the Ravens defense as they take on Baker Mayfield, who has the NFL’s worst completion rate (57%) and is ranked 39th in EPA/att.
We have a clear advantage over the Ravens to start this game.
The Panthers have conceded touchdowns on 4 of 54 (7.4%) first-half drives, ranked 31st in the league, while the Ravens have conceded touchdowns on 7 of 49 (14.3%) opposing drives in the first half have , No. 2 in the league.
In addition, the Ravens have released the following halftime spans:
- Until 10-3 at NYJ
- Plus 28-7 against MIA
- Until 14-13 at NE
- Plus 20-10 against BUF
- Draw 10-10 against CIN
- Until 10-7 at NYG
- Plus 13-10 against CLE
- Minus 10-3 at TB
- Plus 14-3 at NO
At home, the Ravens have played offenses against the Dolphins, Bills, Bengals and Browns. These teams rank second, fifth, sixth, and eighth in terms of efficiency.
And the Ravens still held them to seven, 10, 10 and 10 points in the first half while leading in three of the four games.
Finally, the Ravens are a very atypical running offensive.
The Panthers are running at sixth defense against early-down RB runs, allowing -0.13 EPA/att and 4.0 YPC.
But the Ravens are mostly 12 and 22 staffers.
During the season, 86% of the Ravens’ early-down RB runs come from 12 or 22 staffers.
And the Panthers defend those runs in 30th place, allowing +0.09 EPA/att and 5.6 YPC.
And specifically against 12 staffers, they’re the worst-managed defense in the NFL.
In Baker’s last five starts against the Ravens, he’s 1-4, completing 58% of his passes and averaging 6.2 YPA with 8 TDs, 4 INTs and -0.01 EPA/att.
As mentioned above, all metrics are pointing towards Baltimore. It’s hard to put up a number that big with the Ravens, but there’s no way I’d want to take the points with the Panthers.
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