NFL Odds Week 7: How to bet Steelers-Dolphins, choose

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Florida to face the Miami Dolphins in Week 7.

The Steelers clinched a 20-18 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while the Dolphins suffered a 24-16 loss to the Minnesota Vikings — their third straight loss.

Here’s everything you need to know about NFL odds for Sunday’s matchup between the Steelers and Dolphins – point spread, moneyline, total over/under and a pick from our Betting Expert (with all NFL odds over FOX Bet).

Tom Brady and Bucs grapple with upset loss to Steelers

Tom Brady and Bucs grapple with upset loss to Steelers

TIED TOGETHER: Week 7 rows, odds

Steeler at dolphins (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Point distribution: Dolphins -7 (Dolphins prefer to win with more than 7 points, otherwise Steelers cover)
money line: Dolphins -303 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $13.30 total); Steelers +220 Win underdogs (bet $10 to win $32 total)
Total Over/Under: Both teams scored 44.5 points together

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT

Miami Dolphins

MIA

Choose over FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

It’s easy to look at the Dolphins and say that this was a team that dropped out early this season, looked decent, and then showed more of their true colors. They’ve lost their last three games, two of which have been in double figures, and Tua’s return won’t mean much to that offensive.

That’s the excuse.

This is the lazy man’s tale.

A few things to poke a few holes in your argument.

1) Did you know that Tua Tagovailoa was knocked out of the Bengals game with almost six minutes remaining in the second quarter, and still was out in a short week on Thursday, ahead of the brutal heat game against the Bills that the Dolphins led the Bengals in fourth quarter?

The Bengals went on 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to forge a 12-point win.

2) Did you know that after ONE game, Teddy Bridgewater got kicked out of the Jets game and rookie Skylar Thompson, who had practiced all season with first-team offense zero, came on at that point and was still on the road was the Dolphins with just two, 19-17, with less than 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter?

The Jets scored 21 unanswered points in the final 9:22 of the game to set the lopsided 40-17 final score, but that game was a two-point game for most of the third quarter and early in the fourth quarter.

3) Did you know that Skylar Thompson was kicked out of the Vikings game just ONE minute into the second quarter and Teddy Bridgewater had to fill in for him after missing practice all week with a concussion? Even so, late in the fourth quarter, the Dolphins were only six points behind and were looking for another touchdown to take the lead.

But on a second down, Jaylen Waddle fumbled the ball at the Vikings’ 26-yard line after gaining enough yards to convert the first down. Instead of a first-and-10 for the Dolphins, Minnesota had the ball 4:00 left and in goal area. After a 6-yard run, Dalvin Cook broke up a 53-yard TD run and the Vikings made the 2 points -Conversion. And what would have been a 1-point deficit had Miami scored turned into a 14-point lead for the Vikings.

And on top of that, the Dolphins beat the Vikings the whole match and it wasn’t close.

First downs: MIA 23, MIN 11

Total meters: MIA 458, MIN 234

Passing yards: MIA 418, MIN 175

We could go on, but the point is that Miami should have won this game despite losing three turnovers. But they lost in what looked like a one-sided game that was much closer.

4) In THREE STRAIGHT GAMES, the Miami Dolphins saw their starting QB get kicked out of the game. For THREE STRAIGHT GAMES, a backup QB was inserted into the game who either didn’t take first-team reps, had never played with the starters, or who spent the entire week starting the game in concussion protocol. A brutal turn of events for these QBs and Mike McDaniel as each and every one of these QBs has different skills, not to mention the backups throw with a different hand than the starter.

And during that time, the Dolphins have played the third-hardest opposing defense schedule, including the fourth-hardest pass defense schedule.

That should make life even harder for the insane QB situation.

And yet, where does the Dolphins’ offense rank at the moment?

Sixth in total offense, fifth in passing offense.

That’s absurd. It shouldn’t be possible.

How are you playing this half of the season with multiple backup QBs, against the 3rd most difficult list of defenses and having the 5th highest passing offense?

So that’s my argument for anyone who thinks this Dolphins team isn’t solid, especially now that they have their quarterback in the starting XI.

Now the Dolphins get their starter back and can play against a Steelers team that just had a prize gift wrapped for them.

The Bucs should have passed the ball more often last week against a terrible Steelers secondary. But they didn’t.

On first downs in the first three quarters, the Bucs fell behind to pass the ball on only 39% of their offensive plays.

These runs scored 3.6 YPC, -0.05 EPA/att and 43% success.

Because of this, they averaged 8.2 yards from target on second downs, the sixth-longest in the NFL.

It didn’t make any sense at all.

Overall, with 42 early down plays in the first three quarters of games, barring three throwaways and a sack, this was the Bucs game plan on offense:

12 WR Goals: +0.70 EPA/att, 11.0 YPA, 75% success

19 runs: -0.10 EPA/att, 3.2 YPC, 47% success

7 non-WR targets: -0.31 EPA/att, 3.9 YPA, 29% success

That’s right — only 12 of the 42 games were actual WR targets to attack the exhausted Steelers’ secondary weakness. At the same time, the team instead called in a slew of runs and non-WR targets, all of which produced terrible results.

Pittsburgh has played two offenses that rank 15th or better in efficiency this year:

38-3 loss to the Bills

29-17 loss to the Browns

We’ve since learned that the Browns have one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL. And yet they didn’t make it inside the Browns’ 43 on the Steelers’ last seven drives of the game except once, and that was to kick the FG.

But both losses were in double digits.

Now the Steelers have to take on the Dolphins, who are the No. 6 offensive line in the NFL, despite what I said earlier about the deck stacked against them.

If there was a time for a buy low and a sell high, this would be it. The Steelers, after their biggest win of the year and their first win in their last five games, take to the streets to take on a team far better than the last three weeks’ final results suggest and finally get their QB1 back . Dolphins are looking solid in teasers this week, and if you had to go for the full game’s ATS, I’d go with the Dolphins.

SELECT: Dolphins (-7 on FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

Click here for those the latest NFL odds and everything you need in the world of sports betting at FOXSports.com and the FOX Sports App.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars at the biggest sporting events every week! Just make your choice and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!



source

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *