Ravens News 10/21: Smash Mouth Matchup and More

Ravens vs. Browns Scouting Report For Week 7: Who Comes Out On Top? – Baby walker for children

Jackson and company will look to regain their footing against a Cleveland Pass defense that was less than the sum of its parts. Defensive end Myles Garrett (five sacks, six tackles for losses) remains the best defender in the league according to Pro Football Focus and Jadeveon Clowney isn’t far behind, but the Browns rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pressure per dropback. Cornerback Denzel Ward signed a $100 million contract during the offseason but played poorly by his standards. The Browns have forced just five turnovers, and Patriots backup Bailey Zappe beat them 38-15 in Cleveland last Sunday.

Offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s ground attack targets one of the worst defenses in the league. The Browns have allowed opponents an average of five yards per carry and have conceded more than 200 rushing yards to the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers. Linebackers Jacob Phillips and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah fared poorly against the run, and the Browns lack a strong center back to complement their stars on the fringes. If the Ravens dominate the game, it will happen here.

forecast

The Ravens could go into full crisis mode if they lose at home to the struggling Browns. But they’re the better all-around team with the right offense to slash Cleveland’s tender middle and push Nick Chubb back off the field. You don’t have to sweat until the last second for once. raven 30, brown 20

A Look At Browns Running Back Nick Chubb Vs. The Ravens – Todd Karpovich

Nick Chubb leads the NFL in yards rushing but has mixed results against the Ravens.

He’s run amok for more than 100 yards in some games, and at times Baltimore has knocked him out.

September 29, 2019 — 20 carries, 165 yards, 3 touchdowns

Score: Raven 40, Brown 25

Dec 22, 2019 — 15 carries, 45 yards, 0 touchdowns

Score: Browns 31, Ravens 15

13 Sept 2020 — 10 carries, 60 yards, 0 touchdowns

Score: raven 38, brown 6

Dec 14, 2020 — 17 carries, 82 yards, 2 touchdowns

Score: Browns 47, Ravens 42

Nov 28, 2021 — 8 carries, 16 yards, 0 touchdowns

Score: raven 16, brown 10

Dec 12, 2021 — 17 carries, 59 yards, 0 touchdowns

Score: Browns 24, Ravens 22

NFL offense is dead – but dual reporting unlikely to be the guilty party – Josh Hermsmeyer

There are no shortage of theories as to why the scoring has declined, but one of the more prominent ideas has to do with the NFL’s constant shift toward “two-high” safety defenses designed to stop the pass. As the name suggests, two-high defenders keep two defenders in lower field to protect against deeper throws.

So far in 2022, the rate of two-high security covers deployed at first and second down is 34.2 percent — a 9.1 percentage point increase from 2016.1 Meanwhile, single high coverage has gone slightly out of fashion, falling from 56.2 percent in early declines in 2016 to 52.7 percent this year.

And this year’s narrative of choice isn’t without its flaws anyway, as two-high coverages certainly don’t stop the league’s top quarterbacks from putting points on the board. Across six games this season, the EPA’s best offenses per game in the NFL are what you might expect: The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and Baltimore Ravens. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes lead the league in passing touchdowns with 17, and Lamar Jackson is third with 13 TD throws — and all three are above the league average this season in terms of the number of dropbacks versus two-high coverage regards.

Week 7 NFL Game Tips: Jaguars End Giants Winning Streak; Chiefs rebound against 49ers – Gregg Rosenthal

Baltimore Ravens 27, Cleveland Browns 23

It’s sad but fitting that the analytically driven Ravens’ numbers are so much better than their record. Despite the huge leads they’ve built, very little has been consistent throughout their season. Rashod Bateman’s return should help, but the Baltimore defense is struggling to make big stops due to a lack of cross pressure. Look for Nick Chubb to get back on track, but the Browns’ ill-trained defense will cost them again.

NFL picks against the spread – Vic Tafur

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

The Browns, along with their many problems, don’t tackle all that well and have the worst rushing defense the Ravens have faced this season. Cleveland is 27th in rush defense success rate (56.5%) and last in defensive EPA/rush (-7.2). That’s good news for JK Dobbins, a reborn Kenyan Drake and Jackson. The Browns have conceded four league-leading touchdown rushes of over 12 yards, including a 31-yard rushing score in third and tenth place against the Patriots in an ugly loss last week.

While the Browns can run the ball themselves, losing right guard Wyatt Teller is a big deal.

The Choice: Ravens (-6.5)

Week 7 NFL picks against the spread – Sheil Kapadia

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

The Browns have lost three straight games. Their defense was one of the most disappointing units in the NFL. Cleveland’s D ranks 31st in the EPA per drive, ahead only of the Lions.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Ravens knocked out the Browns. Baltimore feels like a good team that goes small in high-leverage situations. But given how well the Browns run the ball (putting it aside against the Patriots last week), I think this one could be close.

The Pick: Browns (+6.5)

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