Tesla Bot-like humanoid robots could be a $150 billion business, says Goldman Sachs

Humanoid robots, like the recently announced Tesla Bot, could become a $150 billion-a-year business within the next 15 years, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs.

The idea of ​​robots taking over simple tasks and reducing labor costs has been around for a long time, but it’s taken on a different meaning.

Robots have already taken on many tasks and jobs, but we are talking about purpose-built and programmed robots for specific tasks – not the general-purpose humanoid robots that science fiction has sold us.

But every now and then there is a resurgence of humanoid robots and some companies are rallying around projects like the Honda Asimo.

Now Tesla is spearheading another resurgence of humanoid robots with its Tesla-Bot project, and that resurgence feels different because Tesla seems determined not only to deliver a new robot, but to get its manufacturing power over and its To make Tesla-Bot an actual widespread product.

Goldman Sachs has been eyeing this Tesla-led resurgence of humanoid robots, and today the company released a new report on an early investment case for the market.

In the report, the company estimates that the humanoid robot market could be worth $154 billion by 2035 — or about as much as the electric vehicle market — which was Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s own prediction.

Goldman Sachs wrote in the report:

The launch of Tesla’s prototype humanoid robot, Optimus, has reignited debate about the financial feasibility of such an innovation. The investment case for humanoid robots is significant – we estimate that in 10-15 years a market size of at least $6 billion will be achievable, around $4 of the US manufacturing labor shortage by 2030E and 2% of global demand to fill in elderly care 2035E.

The company also described its “blue sky scenario”:

Should the hurdles of product design, use case, technology, affordability and wide public adoption be fully overcome, we see a market of up to 152 billion in a blue sky scenario (thirds of the global smartphone market from 2021), suggesting that labor shortage problems such as in manufacturing and elder care can be largely solved.

Interestingly, while Goldman Sachs admits that Tesla is behind the resurgence of humanoid robots, the company instead recommends investing in motion component suppliers to capitalize on this emerging market.

Electrek’s take

I disagree with this analysis, but I could be even more optimistic.

I agree with the general consensus that the prototypes Tesla unveiled in September were underwhelming, but that’s partly due to the company’s approach of focusing on manufacturing the robot for mass production.

I think this approach will lead to rapid improvements in the field of humanoid robots.

I see that Tesla Bot will reach a valuable level of usability within the next 4-5 years and certainly within 10 years it could reach a level where it could be a general purpose robot that could perform a variety of tasks on command .

That’s actually possible in my opinion and could therefore lead to Goldman Sachs’ blue sky scenario a few years before 2035.

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