What else is there to count in the house? Can the Democrats hold the majority?

House Republicans are poised to get the 218 seats they need to flip the chamber afterwards midterm elections. As of Saturday night, CBS News estimates Republicans will win at least 214 seats, while Democrats are estimated to win at least 210 seats.

Republicans are ahead in several standout races. Some toss-ups were broken for the Democrats, however, and on Saturday night CBS News predicted that the Democrats had flipped Washington state’s 3rd congressional district, a seat the GOP would prefer to hold.

There are currently 11 races that have not been declared and 10 of those places are considered “battlegrounds”. Of those located in battlefield districts, five were classified as “toss ups,” two were in the “probably Democrat” category, one was “leaning Democrat,” and two were “leaning Republican.”

Democratic strategists working on house races this cycle say it would take a “miracle,” but Democrats have a potential way to retain the majority.

They would then have to win at least 8 of the remaining 11 seats.

In nine of California’s non-convoked and competitive races (California’s 3rd, 9th, 13th, 22nd, 26th, 27th, 41st, 45th, 47th, and 49th), three were “leaning Republicans.”

For Republicans, California could help them get to the edge of the majority — if their candidates hold their lead.

Mitchell said that for Democrats to hold the House, they would need to win in the 22nd, 27th and 41st districts, all districts where the Republican incumbent leads.

“If the Democrats have won all three of those races in California, then you think the odds that the Democrats can hold the House go up. But if the Democrats lose one of those three, the odds drop sharply, they lose two of those three, the door slams,” Mitchell said.

Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership group, which works with more moderate House Republicans, said she is confident Republicans Valadao and Calvert will hold their seats.

Republicans are also leading in another tight race: Colorado’s 3rd District, where GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert leads by about 1,100 votes and 99 percent of the results.

Democratic incumbents were forecast to win three Nevada seats. The 2nd District of Maine and the At-Large District of Alaska, two ranked seats, leaned toward the Democrats.

“According to the calculations we’ve done – I think it’s a foregone conclusion [that Republicans take the House]’ Chamberlain said. “But it’s going to be very close. There will only be a few seats. And it wasn’t supposed to be, I mean, that should have been a landslide, honestly.”

In the primary, Chamberlain’s group backed Republican candidates such as Michigan Rep. Peter Meijer and House Republican Rep. Jamie Herrera-Beutler who were targeted by former President Donald Trump. Chamberlain argued that the candidates farther to the right, who would have beaten their mainstream Republican picks, would have been more competitive in the general election.

She said candidate quality issues, as well as a disconnect between Trump and the rest of the Republican establishment, are part of the reason control of the House of Representatives remains so tight.

“I don’t think Trump is going away,” Chamberlain said. “We just have to make better decisions with Trump. I think some of the Trump candidates hurt us Tuesday. And that is why, as a party, we must work together and move forward.”


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