Sports Equinox SZN continues a full day of action this Monday.
Tonight, in honor of where sports stars are heading, our analysts are highlighting one of their top picks in each of the major sports.
Monday sports equinox selection
Pacers vs Nets Pick 🏀
Matt Moore: I usually go against division teams for Mike Budenholzer at this point. Since taking over the Bucks, Budenholzer is 58-9 (86.6%) and 47-20 (70.1%) against the spread (ATS) when facing Central Division opponents. That includes 12-4 ATS in the first 20 games when the numbers are often softer, and 15-8 (65%) ATS as a double-digit home favorite.
However, since things have been a bit shaky with the Hounds this season and the Bucks are undefeated — making this a less than ideal place against a brave Pistons team — I’m going with the Under.
Unders in Bucks home league games are 19-15 (44%) and the Bucks defense is #1 in the league schedule adjusted at Dunks And Threes. Detroit has begun to show itself some Offensive chops, but Milwaukee should tighten the brackets. If the Bucks lose, it’s because their offense can’t shoot.
I’ll be chasing steam and playing under 224.5 from an opening game of 227 as I make this game to 218.5 (check real-time NBA odds here).
Kings vs Blues Pick 🏒
Johnny Lazarus: The Los Angeles Kings have looked pretty solid this season despite some lackluster goalies. And I’m confident that both goalkeepers will find their game and turn things around.
The Kings edge the Blues because Los Angeles is the third-best team in the league at conceding risky counter chances, giving up just 9.20 against per game. The Blues are the third-worst team in the league in the same category, giving up 12.27 chances per game.
The Kings have momentum after beating the Maple Leafs, while the Blues lack confidence after their recent loss to the Canadiens.
Astros vs. Phillies selection ⚾
Astros F5 (up to -125)
Sean Zerillo: You can read my full breakdown here, but let’s get straight to the picks: I forecast the Astros as 57.2% favorites (-134 implied) for the first five innings (F5) and 55% favorites (-122 implied ) for the entire game 3.
With that in mind, the Astros’ moneyline is valuable in the first half, but I doubt the entire game’s moneyline will come within reach on either side. You can play the Astros F5 money line – in addition to the first three innings (F3) money line – up to -125 (55.6% implied). A little over my usual 2% margin recommendation, but these are my favorite Game 3 bets.
The F3 game maximizes our opportunity to get into position against Noah Syndergaard – he could be out in the fourth inning if he serves well. Likewise: I need the market to go slightly down to bet on F5 Over 4 (expected to be 4.38) at -112 or better.
Bengals versus Brown’s pick 🏈
Chris Raybon: This is about all you could ask of the Browns from a situational perspective.
With 2-5 and a win to salvage their season, they will be the more desperate team, playing in front of a rough Dawg Pound. Your opponent has just lost their best player on offense, is struggling to stop the run on defense, and has been finding ways to lose at those spots for more than two decades.
According to our Action Labs data, divisional road favorites who have gone 70% or more of their games have lost just 46-71-2 (39%) against the spread (ATS) and failed to make it, 1.75, since 2005 Cover points per game.
The Browns also had some bad luck, which tends to create value. According to our NFL Happiness Rankings, the Browns are 30th while the Bengals are 17th, a 13-place difference. A luck difference of 10 spots or more this season has resulted in an ATS record of 25-14 (64%).
I’d put this at +3 (check real-time NFL odds here).
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